I am a math guy and love statistics. I have been working on a formula to rank NAIA Basketball for a few years now and after a couple of test seasons here are my rankings. This is a ranking of teams with their current rosters. All graduates have been removed from the 2011-2012 rosters as well as those that left teams prior to the completion of the season. This is NOT a predictor of next season due to the fact new players have not been added. This ranking is just a look at where your schools are prior to recruiting. Concordia is middle of the pact now but that as other will change after recruiting. Hope you enjoy.


1 MidAmerican Nazarene (KS) HAAC 64.27
2 Rogers State University SAC 63.76
3 Evangel (MO) HAAC 61.04
4 Oklahoma Christian SAC 57.21
5 West Virginia Tech MSC 56.76
6 Columbia (MO) AMC 55.44
7 Texas Wesleyan RRAC 53.79
8 Southern Poly (GA) SSAC-E 53.08
9 Saint Xavier (IL) CCAC 52.83
10 Baker (KS) HAAC 52.74
11 Truett-McConnell (GA) SSAC-E 52.25
12 Philander Smith (AR) GCAC 52.13
13 William Woods (MO) AMC 47.25
14 Oklahoma Baptist SAC 45.59
15 Our Lady of The Lake (TX) RRAC 44.74
16 Georgetown (KY) MSC 44.48
17 Cal State San Marcos IND 44.24
18 Lewis-Clark State (ID) Frontier 44.15
19 Biola (CA) GSAC 44
20 Southern-New Orleans (LA) GCAC 43.58
21 Missouri Baptist AMC 43.52
22 Robert Morris (IL) CCAC 42.86
23 Bethel (TN) TSAC 42.6
24 Mountain State (WV) IND 42.49
25 St Thomas (TX) RRAC 42.21
26 Williams Baptist (AR) AMC 42.06
27 Paul Quinn College (TX) RRAC 41.98
28 Northwest Oklahoma State SAC 41.26
29 Campellsville (KY) MSC 40.88
39 Life (GA) IND 40.42
31 Masters, The (CA) GSAC 40.25
32 Xavier (LA) GCAC 38.97
33 Lyon (AR) TSAC 38.42
34 Loyola (LA) SSAC-W 38.33
35 Mobile (AL) SSAC-W 38.22
36 Jarvis Christian College (TX) RRAC 38.07
37 Rockey Mountain (MT) Frontier 37.77
38 Westminster (UT) Frontier 37.59
39 Westmont (CA) GSAC 37.56
40 Concordia (CA) GSAC 37.08
41 St. Francis (IL) CCAC 36.84
42 Southwestern Assemblies of God RRAC 36.81
43 Lindsey Wilson MSC 36
44 Pikeville (KY) MSC 35.55
45 Oklahoma City University SAC 35.3
46 Freed-Hardman (TN) TSAC 35.2
47 John Brown (AR) SAC 34.62
48 Shawnee State (OH) MSC 34.26
49 Central Methodist (MO) HAAC 34.25
50 Indiana South Bend CCAC 33.88
51 St Catherine (KY) MSC 33.82
52 Brewton-Parker (GA) SSAC-E 33.76
53 Fisk (TN) GCAC 33.53
54 Vorhees (SC) IND 33.34
55 Blue Mountain (MS) TSAC 32.99
56 Spring Hill (AL) SSAC-W 32.52
57 College of Coastal Georgia SSAC-E 32.41
58 Arizona Christian GSAC 31.92
59 Mid-America Christian (OK) SAC 31.83
60 Southern Wesleyan (SC) SSAC-E 31.57
61 Science and Arts of Oklahoma SAC 31
62 Hannibal-LaGrange (MO) AMC 30.79
63 Rio Grande (OH) MSC 30.69
64 Mid-Continent (KY) TSAC 30.64
65 Lee (TN) SSAC-E 30.23
66 Saint Gregory's (OK) SAC 29.74
67 Cumberlands (KY) MSC 29.68
68 Avila (MO) HAAC 29.02
69 Belhaven (MS) SSAC-W 28.24
70 Montana Tech Frontier 27.44
71 Taladega (AL) GCAC 27.21
72 Emmanuel (GA) SSAC-E 26.73
73 Cumberland (TN) TSAC 26.48
74 Lubbock Christian University SAC 26.3
75 Great Falls (MT) Frontier 25.85
76 William Carey (MS) SSAC-W 25.7
77 Peru State (NB) HAAC 25.66
78 Carroll (MT) Frontier 25.46
79 Roosevelt (IL) CCAC 25.36
80 Hope International (CA) GSAC 25.34
81 Wiley College RRAC 25.3
82 Weyland Baptist (TX) SAC 25.3
83 Southwest (NM) RRAC 24.47
84 Montana State-Northern Frontier 24.31
85 Harris-Stowe State (MO) AMC 24.31
86 Graceland (IA) HAAC 24.29
87 Montana Western Frontier 24.28
88 Vanguard (CA) GSAC 24.11
89 Allen (SC) IND 23.97
90 Olivet Nazarene (IL) CCAC 23.77
91 Martin Methodist (TN) TSAC 23.23
92 Tougaloo (MS) GCAC 22.24
93 LSU-Shreveport RRAC 21.96
94 Missouri Valley HAAC 21.81
95 Culver-Stockton (MO) HAAC 21.5
96 Edward Water (FL) GCAC 21.35
97 Morris (SC) IND 19.89
98 Langston (OK) RRAC 19.62
99 San Diego Christian College GSAC 19.05
100 Huston-Tillotson (TX) RRAC 18.58
101 Dillard (LA) GCAC 17.61
102 Bacone College (OK) RRAC 17.17
103 Faulkner (AL) SSAC-W 15.16
104 Virginia-Wise MSC 14.99
105 Auburn-Mongomery (AL) SSAC-W 13.1
106 Texas College RRAC 11.98
107 Park (MO) AMC 11.01
108 Benedictine (KS) HAAC 9.93

How closely did your formula match the outcomes at Kansas City?

I know MidAmerica isn't losing anybody but I haven't really looked at other rosters to see who is returning/who everyone else is losing. I guess as far as returns without additions of transfers/new recruits, I guess this could be accurate? I don't really know. Just know that MNU has their entire team back, so that is why I could see them at the top of this guys list. It's kinda funny that the HAAC has the top team and the worst team on this list.

I don't doubt or believe his analysis, there just isn't enough information. The value of any analysis is it's power to predict, so I want to know how it predicted the results in KC this year.

OBU lost all five starters and has only four people coming back. 14th sounds great! Of course, you knock Oklahoma Christian, Northwestern Oklahoma and Southern Nazarene out of the rankings. They're not NAIA next year.

This is how the 32 in KC ranked before the tourney started. Azusa Pacific didn't make it to KC and their rating was 73.30, which was third best in the nation. I believe if I did my research correct Northwest Oklahoma State was denied entry into the NCAA, Oklahoma Christian is applying this year and Southern Nazarene is not in my rankings.

1. Concordia 79.43
2. Oklahoma Baptist 74.33
3. Rogers State 72.56
4. Robert Morris 71.36
5. Shorter 69.76
6. LSU-Shreveport 69.01
7. Texas Wesleyan 68.12
8. John Brown 68.09
9. Mountain State 67.84
10. Biola 66.98
11. Our Lady of the Lake 66.68
12. Martin Methodist 65.69
13. Lindsey Wilson 64.21
14. Point Loma 63.22
15. MidAmerica Nazarene 63.11
16. Georgetown 60.01
17. Southern Poly 59.47
18. Cumberlands 58.82
19. Oklahoma Christian 56.85
20. Southern Nazarene 55.76
21. Montana State Northern 55.43
22. Montana Western 55.05
23. Columbia 54.95
24. Lee 54.21
25. Baker 53.23
26. Tougaloo 53.14
27. Life 52.6
28. Evangel 52.48
29. Xavier 51.08
30. Campbellsville 50.65
31. Southern University New Orleans 49.81
32. Bellhaven 46.27

If NWOSU applies again this year like they claim they will, they are post season ineligible.

Think that it's a foregone conclusion that NWOSU will apply again since they are already included in the Great American Conference schedule for next year in basketball.

I am curious. What are some of your factors in the ranking?

I’m sorry but I won’t give you my exact formula, but what I will tell you is that it’s a mixture of many statistical categories, as well as wins, losses, margin of victory, opponents, and other factors. again this ranking is just where the teams stand now before recruiting. Concordia and OBU wont be that far down when the season starts, unless they forget how to recruit. This is just to give fans an idea of how much their team needs for next season.

I know LSUS lost a lot of players but 93rd seems a little extreme. I hope whodat doesn't see this or he will pass out. TWU seems too high losing Frederick and Moss. Did LeBron take his talents to Fort Worth?

It would definitely be a great predictor if the NAIA D-I wasn't so heavily influenced by transfers. Teams like Mountain State will never be hurt by graduation.

Well, at least on the women's side, where I gave an example, your formula is way off. great idea, bad application.

Your #1 and #2 team's, MNU and Rogers State will play a home and home series next year with one game in November at Rogers State, then a game in December at MNU. ..... And seeing Benedictine last in anything makes me happy... lol, but I know they will not be the worst team in the HAAC, let alone the country next year.

Again, this is not a predictor of how teams will be in November, it shows what the state of teams are now prior to recruiting. After LSU-Shreveport has recruited I’m sure they will not be 93rd in the nation. There will be a lot of movement by the start of the season when team’s rosters have been finalized. This is the current state of teams without last season’s seniors and other players that have left for whatever circumstances, and not how they will finish the 2012-2013.

This is a ranking based on player performance, correct? How will you gauge the effectiveness of new players? We all know of high school and JC players with big numbers that fail in the NAIA, and D1 transfers with no numbers that turn into stars.

I'm not doubting the effectiveness of the ranking (yet) but thinking that it won't really be meaningful until January. Like Massey.

I understand that, and again, I am not bashing what you are trying to do. I think it's cool. I am trying to add constructive critisism... I use the Women's CCAC for my example because I know it the best... You have a Rosevelt team that lost 2 of its 3 best players, finished under .500 now ranked 25th... St Francis lost 4 of its top 5 players and now ranked like 10th... While Robert Morris won 18 games, returns most of roster and is 70th... something wrong with the math there...

Plus a team like Arizona Christian who won only 8 games but is ranked 11th, If a 8 win team returns all of it's players, then they are still an 8 win team...

I apologize if I sounded condescending, and the math may seem off now, but after the teams are at their full strength the numbers will make more sense. Robert Morris lost Barnet and Rogers and with that over a ¼ of their scoring, nearly half of their rebounding, their leader in steals and assist. What they did keep was a majority of their turnovers and poor shooting. I’m just trying to give the NAIA a ranking that better represent where teams are at the start of the season than using what they did at the end of the previous season. I admit it is still not perfect, but the research put into this over the summer and fall will give a greater look at where the teams will be at the start of the season. I feel that it is better than just coaches voting how they did in March and waiting to see how things are in December. And it’s supposed be fun for you all to look at and see where you all think I went wrong or got it right and get the discussions going. I don’t have a website and I’m not out to make a buck, just having fun with two of my favorite things.

No need to aplogize. I am not being argumentitive. Just adding some points and maybe you can adjust accordingly if you happen to agree with them. I like this idea, perspective and where it's going.
I get what you say by what Robert Morris lost, but then on the opposite side how is St Francis 10th when they lost more statistically than did Robert Morris? That's why I see a issue with the formula. Just as a team that doesn't lose starters but only won a minimal amount of games with the ones that they kept.
Please don't use this as a defense of the CCAC or any team in it... It's just what I'm most familiar with.

Is their any way this formula can be applied to NAIA football?