Records and Placement is based on last rankings that came out 1/14 and 1/15
THE BIDS AAC: Tennessee Wesleyan #34 (11-7) CPAC: Cal Maritime #23 15-3 CCC 1: Eastern Oregon #1 20-1 CCC 2: Warner Pacific #8 17-4 CCAC: Cardinal Stritch #3 19-2 GPAC 1: Northwestern #5 15-4 GPAC 2: Dordt #12 16-4 Indy: Rochester #13 14-3 Indy 2: Valley City State #20 14-4 KCAC 1: Saint Mary #27 13-5 KCAC 2: Sterling NR 13-6 KIAC: Indian Southeast #14 15-3 MCC 1: William Penn #2 19-1 MCC 2: Mount Mercy #7 18-2 MCAC: College of the Ozarks #25 14-4 Cross 1: Indiana Wesleyan #4 18-2 Cross 2: Bethel #16 16-4 Sun: St. Thomas #6 15-3 WHAC 1: Davenport #11 14-5 WHAC 2: Madonna #19 14-5 Host: ________________ (Ozarks atop conference) At Large: Embry-Riddle #9 16-3 At Large: Northwood #10 16-2 At Large: Northwest #15 17-4 At Large: Doane #17 18-3 At Large: St. Xavier #18 17-4 At Large: Southern Oregon #21 15-5 At Large: Grace #22 13-6 At Large: Ave Maria #24 14-2 At-Large: Briar Cliff #26 15-5 At-Large: Cornerstone #28 13-6 At-Large: York #29 14-3 At-Large: Hastings #30 16-5
First 4 out: Oklahoma Wesleyan Indiana Tech Dakota State Taylor
Last 4 in: Briar Cliff Cornerstone York Hastings
I know it is early but open to hear what people think.
Some notes: As of right now since Ozarks are number 1 in their conference they do not take the host bid but rather the conference bid. Also, the AMC is no longer around so there are more at large bids this year given a limited amount of upsets. There may have been mistakes made so please feel free to add corrections below.
Good job on the bracketology. Its going to be interesting to see what teams do down the stretch for this final month or so.
I wonder about the teams who are 20th and below. How many (if any) losses can each sustain in conference and still make the tournament. I think this all goes back to the previous topic of how the raters view each conference.
I can't wait to see how all of this will unfold. This is always the most exciting time of year!
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 4:38 pm Posts: 133 Location: The OC (IA)
GPAC is consistently knocking each other off, which could doom getting more teams in. Top 6 are all capable of winning games in Branson, but several won't get the chance.
Noticed that D II doesn't have a lot of ranked teams with awesome records either, so this could be a real crapshoot for who gets the final 6-8 tourney bids. All this parity should make for a VERY interesting round 1 @ nationals!
I agree that first round could be very interesting. You may have some teams that were ranked very high at some point in the year, but have struggled lately, playing some high seeds.
Two teams that immediately come to mind are Southern Oregon and Embry Riddle. Southern Oregon went 0-2 last week and Embry Riddle has been scuffling as of late. Both teams could go from solidly in the top 10-top 15 the whole year to the fringe of the top 25 this week.
Embry Riddle is currently 6th in its conference and were ranked behind Ave Maria by the rater. Ave Maria, who was #24 last week, lost last week so I cannot see them making a big jump, which is trouble for Embry Riddle because they must be ranked behind Ave Maria in top 25.
Southern Oregon has lost three of four. We will find out about the conference respect in their case. If they stay in the top 25, their conference affiliation will be a big factor. If I remember correctly, they had a few tough losses down the stretch last year that derailed their trip to Branson.
How about Dordt? Before the year began, some could have picked them as a legit national championship contender. Even though they have underperformed, I am not sure a top 12 team wants to see them in the first round.
I also wonder about the Independents. The fact that there are two automatics is interesting. There are some low quality teams that allow them to get to the 10 team threshold. What do raters do with Rochester? They were #13 and were idle last week. Valley City State has a Massey in the 50's and lost to Jamestown this week. They could be another one that departs the top 25.
Eastern Oregon looks like they have established themselves as a clear #1. However, they have some games in the Cascade that could be tough as road games in that conference are never easy. With that said, I do not see a dominant team like last year's Northwood and even with them we found out that anything can happen in Point Lookout, MO. (Speaking of that-Oregon Tech has to wonder how much different things would be with Bobby Hunter still in Klamath Falls.)
What does it all mean? Who knows-but it is interesting to talk about. I still say the NAIA basketball tournaments (both Branson and Kansas City) are the most action packed tournaments in the country.
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 4:38 pm Posts: 133 Location: The OC (IA)
One Shining Moment wrote:
...How about Dordt? Before the year began, some could have picked them as a legit national championship contender. Even though they have underperformed, I am not sure a top 12 team wants to see them in the first round... .
Agree. It's been frustrating to watch them drop games where they're favored, but they do seem to be gelling finally.
In my biased opinion, they have several factors that will make them a tough draw in Branson: -Most losses have come after looong bus rides -They return all but 1 player (3 min/game) from a final 8 team -Have had 7 different scoring leaders, so tough to key on any one player defensively -2 deep at every position, so foul trouble hasn't been an issue -battle-tested during a rugged conf schedule
Great call on Bobby Hunter. I'd bet it would be a completely different season with him at the point. Meanwhile, I wonder if he's getting DI looks around the country. Anyone read anything about him recently?
Thanks for the update on Hunter teamJP. How are you feeling about Embry Riddle going into the final couple of weeks? Looked unbeatable for a while when they were ranked #2. Definitely not a team you want to see in the first round at Branson.
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2005 2:14 am Posts: 817 Location: Daytona Beach, Fla.
Embry-Riddle playing pretty well right now, won 5 of last 6, with only loss to Northwood down at their place. We're still young, starting three sophomores and a freshman, but 27 games into the season, our young guys are growing up quickly.
Big week for the Eagles with Webber and Ave Maria coming to town. Like most of the better leagues in the NAIA (Cascade, Crossroads, GPAC, WHAC) there aren't too many easy nights in conference play.
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