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 Post subject: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:05 pm 
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I thought there were some very suspect moves in this weeks poll... Do they really think about the decisions they make.

William Carey go's 1-1 for the week and its loss was to a ranked team and they drop 4 spots, but then the #25 team from last week go's 1-1 and moves up 8 spots... jumping teams that had better wins and a better record???

and how does a team that loses 4 out of 5 stay in the Poll (Cumberlands)and Shawnee State with a record of 11-7 gets into the top 25?

Just confused who is doing the math on a few of these moves...


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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:40 pm 
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Shawnee doesn't make sense. Neither does 2 GCAC teams. Something stinks. Xavier proves to be overrated year in and year out and now some school named Philander Smith shows up in the top 25? At least the pollsters always keep you guessing.... :good-Thumb

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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 12:13 am 
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I don't have much to complain about for William Carey.

The Midsouth rankings flow from what happened this week and the conference ratings. Not saying they are good, but there is conflicting data for the raters to sort out. Remember that the national ratings have to follow the order set in the conference ratings. Here's the conference ratings:

Mid-South Conference
1. Pikeville (Ky.) (8-2 / 18-2)
2. Lindsey Wilson (Ky.) (8-2 / 18-2)
3. Shawnee State (Ohio) (7-3 / 11-7)
4. Cumberlands (Ky.) (6-4 / 15-5)
5. Georgetown (Ky.) (5-4 / 13-4)
6. UVa-Wise (5-4 / 9-5)
7. Campbellsville (Ky.) (5-5 / 11-7)

Here's the most significant data point from last week: Georgetown beat #1 Pikeville at Pikeville. That was a big upset, and shows the depth of the conference. I think the raters ranted to give Georgetown credit for that; they got 19 points. In order to do that, each rater that voted for Georgetown had to give Shawnee and Cumberlands votes too, higher than Georgetown.

Once you are past that, then you have to look at the order of the conference rating itself, and you can see it goes right down the order of wins/losses. Nothing to complain about there.

Bottom line, it's the quirk of the ratings rules and a significant win by Georgetown resulting in votes for teams that probably wouldn't get them otherwise.


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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:42 am 
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Idea. Why not after the December break throw the Massey ratings into the mix. Each rater makes their ranking and then the NAIA takes the Massey rankings of each conference and average the ranking. Then take that and create a top 25. Just a thought. any suggestions from the peanut gallery.

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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 9:27 am 
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Here's what the ratings would look like with Massey factored in.

AMC
1 Columbia (Mo.)
2 Park (Mo.)
3 William Woods (Mo.)
4 Williams Baptist (Ark.)


Frontier
1. Lewis-Clark State (Idaho)
2. Westminster (Utah)
2. Montana State-Northern
4. Great Falls (Mont.)
5. Montana Western

GSAC
1. Westmont (Calif.)
2. Hope International (Calif.)
3. Arizona Christian
4. Concordia (Calif.)
5. Vanguard (Calif.)
6. The Master's (Calif.)

GCAC
1. Xavier (La.)
2. Philander Smith (Ark.)
3. Southern-New Orleans (La.)
4. Talladega (Ala.)
5. Edward Waters (Fla.)
6. Tougaloo (Miss.)
7. Fisk (Tenn.)
7. Dillard (La.)

HAAC
1. Evangel (Mo.)
2. MidAmerica Nazarene (Kan.)
3. Benedictine (Kan.)
3. Culver-Stockton (Mo.)
5. Central Methodist (Mo.)
6. Baker (Kan.)
7. Missouri Valley

MidSouth
1. Lindsey Wilson (Ky.)
1. Pikeville (Ky.)
3. Georgetown (Ky.)
3. Cumberlands (Ky.)
3. Shawnee State (Ohio)
6. Campbellsville (Ky.)
6. UVA-Wise

RRAC
1. SAGU (Texas)
2. St. Thomas (Texas)
2. LSU Shreveport
4. Our Lady of the Lake (Texas)
5. Texas Wesleyan
5. Texas College

Sooner
1. Oklahoma Baptist
2. Rogers State (Okla.)
2. John Brown (Ark.)
4. Science & Arts (Okla.)
5. Mid-America Christian (Okla.)
6. Lubbock Christian (Texas)
7. Oklahoma City
7. Wayland Baptist (Texas)

SSAC
1. Lee (Tenn.)
2. William Carey (Miss.)
3. Emmanuel (Ga.)
4. Faulkner (Ala.)
5. Mobile (Ala.)
5. Loyola (La.)

TS
1. Bethel (Tenn.)
2. Life (Ga.)
2. Mid-Continent (Ky.)
4. Martin Methodist (Tenn.)
5. Freed-Hardeman (Tenn.)
5. Blue Mountain (Miss.)

IND
1. Cal State San Marcos
2. West Virginia Tech
3. Robert Morris (Ill.)
4. Voorhees (S.C.)

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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:57 pm 
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The problem with the Sooner when you add Massey in is that OBU is somehow #1. JBU is undefeated in conf play which should count for a lot in our conference and have head-to-head wins over both OBU and RSU who have 2 conf losses while JBU has zero and yet somehow both are ahead of them.


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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 4:21 pm 
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jbufan wrote:
The problem with the Sooner when you add Massey in is that OBU is somehow #1. JBU is undefeated in conf play which should count for a lot in our conference and have head-to-head wins over both OBU and RSU who have 2 conf losses while JBU has zero and yet somehow both are ahead of them.


John Brown jumped 19 spots in the Massey this week. If they keep winning Massey will have them as the top team in the Sooner very soon. It's strictly a numbers thing. Prior to the start of conference play, the only teams they beat were weak and any decent team they played beat them:
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3643&s=193573
Note the relative strength of their opponent in the Rating column. Before the new year, any team 1048 or better they lost to, and any team worse than that they beat. 1048 translates to about #65. Since then, they've won every game including a couple against teams in the mid 400s, which translates to about #10.

Now that conference play has started they are proving their quality and rising quickly. Bottom line, I think JBU is being rated fairly by Massey.


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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:01 pm 
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I will argue ad nauseum about how the use of Massey in small college basketball isn't a good indicator of team strength. Individual players come and go due to health or eligibility. One or 2 players can completely overhaul a roster.

I love it for NAIA football, but there are just too many variables in small college basketball. Secondly, I have a hard time believing there are 15 NAIA D-II teams better than half of the NAIA D-I top 25. There are 3 or 4 NAIA D-II teams whom could play with any NAIA D-I team any given year, but most of the NAIA D-II top 25 would barely finish .500 in most conferences.


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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:25 pm 
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I agree with you PK. Perfect example right now is that Biola has played their first game of the season with their intended starting five only Saturday, and beat Concordia at Concordia. Concordia isn't who they were last year, but that's besides the point. Massey says Concordia is #35, and Biola #66 even after that game. Massey doesn't "know" that the lineup wasn't whole before, and is now.

Still, Massey is a very useful tool. "all things being equal" the numbers are good. All things never are equal, so you have to make mental adjustments to Massey; Biola is clearly better than CUI at this point, so I would expect Massey to "catch up" with reality eventually and if I were a rater I would put Biola ahead of Concordia (they are tied in the GSAC standings with 3 other teams). But Massey is a useful tool, and it will tell you things you don't know. If Team X isn't rated but Massey has them at #15, well, Massey says you might be missing something. Usually that they've played a very tough schedule. But sometimes the answer is that they were really tough a month ago but then lost 3 starters and aren't the same team anymore.


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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:40 pm 
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No one else has come up with ideas to the ratings problem so here is another one. Three raters for each conference.

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 Post subject: Re: Men's D1 Poll #5
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 12:46 pm 
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OLLUMike wrote:
No one else has come up with ideas to the ratings problem so here is another one. Three raters for each conference.


I like that idea very much. If you averaged their score you could still have a single "conference rating" that could be used to keep things in order nationally. I actually like that rule, because the local coaches know a lot more about who is good than someone on the other side of the country. But with just one rater per conference, there's too much danger of them gaming the system.


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