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 Post subject: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 2:45 pm 
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Here's how Massey has the SAC finishing as of Feb. 1....

OBU 12-4
MACU 12-4
JBU 11-5
RSU 10-6
USAO 8-8
LCU 8-8
OCU 6-10
WBU 5-11
SGU 0-16


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 Post subject: Re: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:10 pm 
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I understand this is just Massey talking but I don't see JBU going 3-4 the rest of the way. I could see them losing to OBU at home and RSU on the road and that's it. Massey also had OBU beating JBU by 12 at home and look how that turned out for him. It's fun to think about but I see JBU finishing no worse than 2nd and beating MACU who I think could fade down the stretch.


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 Post subject: Re: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2013 3:21 pm 
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I agree, with every game - win or lose - JBU makes up for their weak early schedule that Massey is penalizing them for. I don't think the loss last week to Wayland even hurt them that much. So next week Massey will probably change predictions of a loss to OBU to a win, and if they beat Rogers it might even change the predicted City loss to a win.

It's not just if JBU will do better than Massey predicts, but how Massey's predictions will be refined as more games are played.


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 Post subject: Re: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Sat Feb 02, 2013 10:45 pm 
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bronto wrote:
I agree, with every game - win or lose - JBU makes up for their weak early schedule that Massey is penalizing them for. I don't think the loss last week to Wayland even hurt them that much. So next week Massey will probably change predictions of a loss to OBU to a win, and if they beat Rogers it might even change the predicted City loss to a win.

It's not just if JBU will do better than Massey predicts, but how Massey's predictions will be refined as more games are played.


Even though I'm not thrilled with Massey as it artbitrarily has denoted SAC teams' non-conference games as exhibition sporadically, they picked the JBU-SGU game tonight pretty close. Massey said 77-61, final score: 76-62.


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 Post subject: Re: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 2:18 pm 
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I wonder how Massey thinks JBU will finish now. Everything I've heard thinks the only "elite" team they have left is OBU and that's at home so everyone thinks JBU will be regular season champs.


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 Post subject: Re: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:32 pm 
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jbufan wrote:
I wonder how Massey thinks JBU will finish now. Everything I've heard thinks the only "elite" team they have left is OBU and that's at home so everyone thinks JBU will be regular season champs.


You don't have to wonder. The final two columns for each team shows the predictions:

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb ... %20I&mid=1

Massey predicts 2.8 wins and 2.2 losses. So, most likely they finish 3-2.


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 Post subject: Re: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 7:21 pm 
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bronto wrote:
jbufan wrote:
I wonder how Massey thinks JBU will finish now. Everything I've heard thinks the only "elite" team they have left is OBU and that's at home so everyone thinks JBU will be regular season champs.


You don't have to wonder. The final two columns for each team shows the predictions:

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb ... %20I&mid=1

Massey predicts 2.8 wins and 2.2 losses. So, most likely they finish 3-2.


I don't understand what Massey is thinking....the only team I think JBU really has a chance to lose 2 is OBU and that's at home..he says they only have a 36% winning at OCU and about 40% at MACU....I understand it's hard to win on the road in the SAC but you would think he would put the predictions a little higher although he has been wrong A LOT when it comes to JBU this year


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 Post subject: Re: Massey Picks the SAC
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 7:35 pm 
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JBU played a very weak schedule early, and is currently rated #505 of ALL college basketball teams. You can see the ratings of their opponents above their records:

masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3643&s=193573

Losses to #s 611, 735, 998 & 854 - mostly on the road - suggest they might not do so well against 613 & 654 on the road. Perhaps JBU is underrated because there was a good reason for those losses, but given the numbers Massey makes sense.


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