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 Post subject: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 12:29 pm 
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Like last year, there is a final rating after the conference tourneys are over. So tracking bubble teams isn't as certain as it used to be. But it still seems a worthwhile endeavor, at least to know how deep the at large bids will reach into the top 32. So here we go:

:) 1 Columbia (Mo.) - AMC auto - done
:| 2 Lee (Tenn.) - presumed at large #1 - done
:good-Thumb 3 Lindsey Wilson (Ky.) - MSC auto #1 - done
:| 4 John Brown (Ark.) - presumed at large #2 - done
:| 5 Lewis-Clark State (Idaho) - presumed at large #3 - done
:good-Thumb 6 SAGU (Texas) - RRAC auto #1 - done
:| 7 Cal State San Marcos - presumed at large #4 - done
:| 8 Oklahoma Baptist - presumed at large #5 - done
:good-Thumb 9 Evangel (Mo.) - HAAC #1 - done
:good-Thumb 10 Pikeville (Ky.) - presumed MSC #2 - done
:| 11 Westmont (Calif.) - presumed at large #6 - done
:good-Thumb 12 William Carey (Miss.) - SSAC auto #2, Done
:| 13 Xavier (La.) - presumed at large #7 - done
:| 14 Emmanuel (Ga.) presumed at large #8 - done
:) 15 Montana Western presumed at large #9 - done
:| 16 Georgetown (Ky.) presumed at large #10 - done
:| 17 Hope International (Calif.) presumed at large #11 - done
:| 18 Martin Methodist (Tenn.) - presumed at large #12 - done
:good-Thumb 19 Faulkner (Ala.) SSAC auto #1 - done
:| 20 Montana State-Northern presumed at large #13 - done
:| 21 LSU Shreveport (La.) - presumed at large #14 - done
:good-Thumb 22 Culver-Stockton (Mo.) - HAAC host - done
:good-Thumb Philander Smith (Ark.) - GCAC auto - Won GCAC Tourney
:) 24 Arizona Christian presumed at large #15 - done
:| 25 Bethel (Tenn.) presumed at large #16 - done
:shock: 26 Concordia (Calif.) GSAC auto - done
:( 27 Westminster (Utah) - done
:( 28 Science & Arts (Okla.) - Done
:good-Thumb 29 St. Thomas (Texas) RRAC Auto #2 - done
:good-Thumb 30 MidAmerica Nazarene (Kan.) - HAAC auto #2 - done
:( 31 Robert Morris (Ill.) presumed at large #16 - done
:( 32 Campbellsville (Ky.) presumed at large #16 - done
:( 33 Park (Mo.) - done
:good-Thumb Oklahoma City - Sooner Auto bid - done
:good-Thumb Life - Transouth bid
:good-Thumb Voorhees - AII auto bid
:good-Thumb Rocky - Frontier auto bid

There are 0 conferences with unrated teams alive that can burst someone's bubble.

I am uncertain about how some of the auto bids are awarded for large conferences like the SSAC. I don't think one has been earned yet(?). let me know if you see any error here.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 2:03 pm 
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if Faulkner gets bumped because of an MNU host bid I'm gonna be SUUUUUPER pissed... i complain about that host bid every year, but this year it could end up being extremely unfair

if they win today against #2 Lee i guess its moot, but thats a tall order


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 2:39 pm 
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Sorry, not this year. The HAAC actually deserves 3 bids. If anything, the league is getting screwed. Evangel, Culver, and MNU all deserve to be ranked in the top 20. All 3 teams will have 25 + wins in a much deeper conference that has clearly seen a bump in talent since the scholarship increases due to the NAIA D1 transition.

If MNU was 20-13 or something similar, I would buy your argument. But theyre looking at a 25-7 record with a healthy team finally. If their current roster had been healthy all season, they'd be 30-2 right now and ranked in the top 5.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 2:47 pm 
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for everyone else in America the seeds are determined by final ranking in the Top 25 not shoulda coulda wouldas of how good they would be IF this and that happened... simple fact is, every year an HAAC team takes a spot from a more deserving team (according to the rules everyone but the HAAC has to go by)... if its my team this year its gonna hurt

even if the HAAC was better than every DI conference, they should still have to play by the same seeding rules as everyone else... I've got the same gripe with baseball and LCSC


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:10 pm 
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Yeah, I agree, and MNU is getting jobbed. They are a top 20 team even with those injuries. They are a top 10 team with everyone healthy. That was evident when they went and dropped 99 on Evangel, at Evangel earlier this week.

My argument is the HAAC deserves 3 bids this year. So bitching about the auto bid isn't warranted. MNU, culver, and Evangel all are among the 32 best teams in t
The NAIA.

Imo, Culver is a potential final 4 team if they can get hot. They remind me of Martin Methodist from last season.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:10 pm 
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At #19 I think you're safe, Berg.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:17 pm 
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One example about the HAACs improvement:

Baker received the auto bid last year. They only lost one starter from that team, added a good point guard, and they finished 6th this season after a 3rd place finish from last season. MNU and Evangel are better than last year. Culvers current team would've ran circles around that Baker team from 2012.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:20 pm 
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The coaches and Massey are mostly in agreement on the HAAC this year, except Massey has MNU higher than the coaches.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:25 pm 
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Bronto, thanks for putting the bubble tracker together but I think the final poll that will be used for at large berths is the one on March 6. That's when the real horse trading will take place. It used to be this poll but changed, I think, two years ago when the NAIA put a poll after the conference tournaments were completed.

On a couple of other topics in this thread, I think the Southern States will get 4 in. Pretty gaudy records for the top 4 teams in the conference. MNU deserves to get in this year as they swept Evangel the conference winner fairly easily both games. Really a tough team to understand seams to have more talent than they have showed this year. They seem to play to the competition, example defeating Baker 69-68 in conference tournament when they should defeat them easily.

Also Westminster shouldn't get in this year. Frontier deserves 3 teams, not 4, that loss in the first round of the conference tourney at home is a killer.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:32 pm 
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Yes I know about the final poll, but we still want to track who is in for certain, how deep the at large bids will go, and who has an at large bid if nothing changes. Of course things will change, but this still helps us to understand how much they may change. For example we can see that for RM to get in they have to do very well in the AII tourney and get some help from favored teams in other tourneys. We can also see that Faulkner should be OK unless they fall a long ways.

For this reason I am not going to change any of the "presumed at large bid" notations to "getting at large bid". We won't know for sure until Wednesday.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:01 pm 
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Understand why you put the tracker up. On another topic, I really don't understand the raters at all. I truly think I could do a better job ranking the teams than some of these guys. Two teams of interest that went undefeated before the last poll and dropped. St. Thomas and Park, both won both of their games during the week and lost points. I don't get it. My assumption is that some of these so called raters have buddies that they call to get their conference in a better position. I watch a number of games across the conferences on the internet during the week and I think have a pretty good understanding of who the stronger teams are. Robert Morris at 16-13 should receive no votes and shouldn't get to the national tournament unless they win the independent tournament. How they received any votes in the latest poll is beyond me.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:57 pm 
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Faulkner leads #2 Lee 35-30 at halftime... FU started godawful from the field (something like 3 of 20) and was down 23-11 early
--------------------------------------
edit: tied a 63 with 2:31 left
--------------------------------------
edit: Faulkner wins it in exciting fashion 67-65, and earns an automatic bid to the NT :thumbsup!


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:43 pm 
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JBU has all of a sudden a lot of fans for one evening as they face #7 seed OCU in the conf final Saturday night. If JBU wins OCU's season is done if OCU wins they get the auto bid and JBU receives an at-large.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:57 pm 
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Updated for March 1st games.

Are the SSAC auto bids decided yet?


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 12:09 am 
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My understanding is that the SSAC's two auto bids go to the conference tournament finalists: Faulkner vs. William Carey.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 6:57 am 
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As probably the only AMC advocate on this board, I would add that it would be nice if Park were to get the nod over, say , USAO. I follow both teams closely and it would be a shame if the Drovers were picked.....


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 8:19 am 
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Berg wrote:
Faulkner leads #2 Lee 35-30 at halftime... FU started godawful from the field (something like 3 of 20) and was down 23-11 early
--------------------------------------
edit: tied a 63 with 2:31 left
--------------------------------------
edit: Faulkner wins it in exciting fashion 67-65, and earns an automatic bid to the NT :thumbsup!


Wish I could have been there. I heard Lee's scoring leader and SSAC POY Will Barnes had to go to the hospital in the first half to get a gash above his eye fixed. Not taking anything away from Faulkner at all because I think they are always a quality team and very dangerous during the post-season, but this had to have hurt Lee especially down the stretch.

I'm sure Lee's seed will drop pretty significantly, but I still think this is the best team Lee has ever had and hopefully they will do well in KC.

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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 8:50 am 
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satrap wrote:
As probably the only AMC advocate on this board, I would add that it would be nice if Park were to get the nod over, say , USAO. I follow both teams closely and it would be a shame if the Drovers were picked.....


It would be a crime for Park to be picked over USAO. Even though the SAC is a little watered down this year I can guarantee USAO is better than Park. The only thing that might knock USAO out is if OCU wins the conf. tourney and the raters decide 3 teams is enough from the SAC.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 2:58 pm 
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St THomas upsets LSUS. I think this will end up changing the seedings, and will get St Thomas to KC unless Texas Wesleyan upsets SAGU.


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 Post subject: Re: Bubble tracker
PostPosted: Sat Mar 02, 2013 3:11 pm 
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Someone's bubble currently being burst:

http://www.sidearmstats.com/wvutech/mbb ... board.aspx

San Marcos down big to Voorhees. The very least impact if they lose will be if Robert Morris wins the AII tourney. If they don't, a team without votes will get to KC and burst someone's bubble.


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